je.st
news
Tag: hector
Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-03 16:47:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 753 WTPZ45 KNHC 031447 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 The satellite presentation of Hector has degraded over the past several hours, with only occasional hints of an eye in the latest imagery. More notably, an AMSR2 microwave pass at 0945Z shows a secondary eyewall structure beginning, with a ring of convection noted at about a 30 n mi radius. All these data indicate that Hector has weakened, so the initial wind speed is conservatively reduced to 80 kt, near or just above the latest Dvorak estimates. The current northeasterly shear is forecast to abate by the numerical models during the next 12 hours, which would normally lead to a restrengthening of Hector. However, the secondary eyewall formation throws a wrinkle into the forecast, since that process usually takes longer than that amount of time. As a compromise, gradual intensification is shown starting tomorrow, with a small uptick on Sunday as Hector reaches warmer waters in a light-shear environment. The HWRF and HMON still show Hector becoming a major hurricane, so it is too soon to abandon that forecast. The new forecast is a blend of the latest corrected-consensus guidance and the previous forecast, resulting in about a 10-kt reduction from the last NHC prediction. Slow weakening is shown at the end of the forecast due to cooler SSTs and potential entrainment of drier mid-level air. The initial motion remains 270/10 kt. A large subtropical ridge should steer the hurricane westward for the next couple of days, then a weakness in the ridge develops, which should cause a more west-northwestward track. The model guidance suite is a little slower than yesterday, about 1 or 2 kt overall. While that doesn't sound like much, over the course of a forecast that could change the final cyclone position by a few degrees, so it is meaningful. In this particular case, a slower solution turns Hector to the west-northwest earlier in the forecast, since the hurricane feels the developing weakness to the north-northeast sooner. The new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the model consensus and is adjusted slightly to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.1N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 14.2N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.2N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.3N 146.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 152.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-03 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 14:46:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 15:25:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hector
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-08-03 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 176 FOPZ15 KNHC 031445 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 75 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 130W 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 66(68) 16(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 20(20) 24(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 81(87) 1(88) X(88) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 2(63) X(63) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40) X(40) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 58(65) 2(67) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-03 16:45:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR WEAKER BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 3 the center of Hector was located near 14.1, -128.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
hector
ep5ep102018
Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 12
2018-08-03 16:45:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 775 WTPZ35 KNHC 031445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 ...HECTOR WEAKER BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 128.8W ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1780 MI...2860 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 128.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast to begin later tonight, and Hector could become a major hurricane over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »