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Tropical Storm Hector Graphics
2018-08-02 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 08:50:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 09:25:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-02 10:49:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 853 WTPZ45 KNHC 020849 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Hector's satellite presentation has quickly improved over the past few hours. Recent microwave and scatterometer data indicate that the low-level center is now well embedded within the expanding convective canopy, and a tiny mid-level eye has formed. In fact, a late-arriving WindSat pass from around 0230 UTC showed that Hector had a mid-level structure that has been associated with rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, when present in low-shear environments. The initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt based on a timely ASCAT-B overpass around 0556 UTC. Although the maximum winds measured by the ASCAT were only around 55 kt, at least some undersampling seems likely given the small size of the inner-core of the cyclone. The northeasterly shear that has been affecting Hector does not appear to be significantly affecting the inner-core of the cyclone at this time. However, it is uncertain whether this is only a short-term trend, or if the inner core will remain protected from the higher shear going forward. While the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear should decrease through today, the HWRF and HMON models forecast that Hector will become strongly sheared by tomorrow and temporarily weaken as a result. The small size of the tropical cyclone further complicates the intensity forecast since small cyclones can quickly intensify or weaken, especially in moderate shear environments, and these short-term fluctuations are very difficult to predict. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast does not show significant strengthening or weakening for the first 48 h of the forecast and instead shows steady strengthening, similar to the DSHP and LGEM models, and is higher than the previous advisory. For days 3-5, there is a better consensus among the models that Hector will strengthen, and the official forecast is still close to the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast. The initial motion estimate is now 285/10 kt. There is more confidence in the track forecast. A strong subtropical ridge extending from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific should keep Hector on a general west heading through the entire forecast period. The main source of uncertainty is still the speed of the tropical cyclone at days 3-5. Since the main difference between the models appears to be subtle differences in the strength of the ridge, the NHC forecast is still based on the multi-model consensus and little change has been made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.3N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 14.4N 132.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 14.0N 141.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-02 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 2 the center of Hector was located near 14.3, -123.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 7
2018-08-02 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 173 WTPZ35 KNHC 020845 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 ...HECTOR QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 123.4W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 123.4 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Hector is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-02 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 141 FOPZ15 KNHC 020845 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 78 5(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 125W 50 26 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 125W 64 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 73(75) 11(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 35(35) 17(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 13(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 64(73) 2(75) X(75) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 2(42) X(42) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 55(63) 3(66) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 2(34) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 46(58) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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