je.st

Home › hector

Tag: hector

Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 19

2018-08-05 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 218 WTPZ45 KNHC 050851 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector has maintained a well-defined, 10-nmi-diameter eye inside a gradually shrinking central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600Z from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 102 kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT raw estimates have been near 100 kt. However, more recent infrared satellite images indicate intensity estimates just below 115 kt, so the advisory intensity of 110 kt is based on a blend of the available estimates with more weight placed on recent IR trends. The initial motion remains 275/10 kt. A large, deep-layer ridge to the north of Hector is expected to steer the hurricane westward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a modest poleward 'stair-step' in the track through 72 h due to a dissipating frontal trough pushing southward and becoming stationary northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which should weaken the low-level ridge. After that time, however, the surface trough is forecast to weaken, allowing the ridge to build back across the Islands, forcing Hector back onto a more westerly course on days 4 and 5. More weakening of the ridge in 48-72 hours has resulted in yet another northward shift in the guidance envelope, with the HWRF and HMON models bringing Hector within 60 nmi of the Big Island on day 4. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted slightly northward as a result, but lies just a tad south of the consensus models out of respect for the reliable ECMWF model, which is the southernmost of all of the global and regional models. Outer banding features have become less evident since the previous advisory, and with Hector moving into an increasingly drier airmass, the chances of Hector evolving into an annular hurricane are increasing in the longer term. Although the hurricane will be embedded within a light vertical wind shear environment, marginal SSTs and a much drier airmass characterized by mid-level humidity values less than 40 percent are expected to produce a slow weakening trend throughout the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN, which all show steady weakening. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long time ranges. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.4N 135.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.6N 137.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.6N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.2N 145.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.9N 151.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 17.2N 157.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 17.7N 162.6W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2018-08-05 10:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 850 FOPZ15 KNHC 050850 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 34 1 97(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 X 83(83) 10(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 140W 64 X 54(54) 20(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 58(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 2(50) X(50) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 18(78) X(78) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 21(47) X(47) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) X(28) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 1(38) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 61(64) 3(67) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 3(50) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 15(68) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 12(35) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LIHUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)

2018-08-05 10:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HECTOR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO MONDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Hector was located near 14.4, -135.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane hector ep5ep102018

Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 19

2018-08-05 10:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 101 WTPZ35 KNHC 050850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...HECTOR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 135.7W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 135.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. However, Hector is expected to still be a major hurricane when it moves into the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public advisory hurricane