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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-05 10:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 184 FONT12 KNHC 050854 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 10 X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-05 10:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 230 WTNT22 KNHC 050853 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DAUPHIN ISLAND IS DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 89.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 89.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.4N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 93.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 36.7N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 39.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 11A
2018-09-05 08:04:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 023 WTNT32 KNHC 050603 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 11A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 ...CENTER OF GORDON MOVING OVER LAND JUST WEST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER... Corrected Tropical Storm Warning SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 88.8W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM W OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Pascagoula Mississippi to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 88.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while the system moves over land, and Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported at Mobile Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Pascagoula...1 to 3 ft. Pascagoula to the Alabama/Florida Border including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Alabama/Florida Border to Navarre, Florida...1 to 3 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue during the next few hours within portions of the warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible near the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gordon Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-09-05 05:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 05 Sep 2018 03:41:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gordon Update Statement
2018-09-05 05:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 762 WTNT62 KNHC 050331 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1030 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...CENTER OF GORDON MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that Gordon made landfall around 1015 PM CDT (0315 UTC) just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border with estimated maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1015 PM CDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 88.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Pasch
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