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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-22 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose organization. Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally limited to the east and south of the storm's center. Unfortunately, the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed. Due to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This intensity estimate may be generous, however. Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29 degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear. Moreover, the cyclone's small size has likely made it more susceptible to shear. Although the shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so, the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in 24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast calls for dissipation by 36 h. It should be noted that, given the current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any time. Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. The system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and roughly in the middle of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-10-22 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-22 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 the center of Vicente was located near 15.4, -101.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 14
2018-10-22 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.5 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn to the northwest is expected later today followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to be near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Vicente is forecast to dissipate within the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-10-22 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 35SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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