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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-15 12:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 11:39:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 09:03:48 GMT
Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 12:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ALEX NEARING TERCEIRA ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AZORES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 38.0, -26.9 with movement N at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 7A
2016-01-15 12:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151138 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 800 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...CENTER OF ALEX NEARING TERCEIRA ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AZORES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 26.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 26.9 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 24 mph (39 km/h). A northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later this morning and this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the central Azores during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex will likely lose its tropical characteristics by this afternoon or tonight while it moves over colder waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Ponta Delgada on Sao Miguel Island recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). Santa Maria Island recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue across the eastern and central Azores this morning, with hurricane conditions expected in the central Azores during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall should diminish across the Azores by late afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-15 10:07:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 08:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 09:03:48 GMT
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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-01-15 09:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150846 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 Corrected 48-hr forecast position The overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since the previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection and a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a hurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and a current T-number of T3.5/55 kt. Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position, there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track, the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center. Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures, and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12 hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic. The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant based on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is expected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical transition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 36.8N 27.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 41.4N 27.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/0600Z 48.7N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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