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Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 5A
2016-01-15 00:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142344 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 800 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...ALEX MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 27.8W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A northward motion with an increase in forward speed are expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Santa Maria in the Azores has reported wind gusts of up to 45 mph (72 kn/h) during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-14 21:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 20:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 20:50:48 GMT
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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-01-14 21:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142036 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye embedded within cold cloud tops. Recent images do suggest some warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant. Dvorak T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75 kt. Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should continue to cool along the path of Alex. This, along with a little increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual weakening. However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength while passing near or over the Azores. In 24 hours or so, the global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion of the circulation. This suggests extratropical transition, and the official forecast reflects this. Later in the forecast period, the global models show the system merging with another extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic. The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19. There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader trough to its northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the consensus of these models. This is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 33.6N 27.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 41.8N 27.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/0600Z 49.5N 29.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 56.5N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-01-14 21:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 142035 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 34 71 18(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) PONTA DELGADA 50 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONTA DELGADA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-14 21:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Jan 14 the center of ALEX was located near 33.6, -27.8 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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