ThinkProgress: The chances of an El Nio developing this year are now at almost 4 out of 5. The chart above from NASA makes clear El Nios are generally the hottest years on record - since the regional warming adds to the underlying man-made global trend.
The chart below is the consensus forecast for the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society:
If this El Nio does start fairly quickly and become...