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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-20 07:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 200546 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012024)
2024-06-20 07:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALBERTO APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of Alberto was located near 21.9, -96.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 10A
2024-06-20 07:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...ALBERTO APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 96.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande. * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 96.1 West. Alberto is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On this track, the center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico later this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center of Alberto reaches land later this morning. Weakening is expected after the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today or tonight. Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 460 miles (740 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this morning. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics