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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-11 13:16:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111116 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the east of the low-level center of an area of low pressure located over the southwestern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional development is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2024-10-11 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 08:44:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 08:44:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 36
2024-10-11 10:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days. Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday, if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend and dissipating early next week. Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is essentially the same as the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics