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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-02 00:23:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 012323 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a broad area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean. Additional gradual development is possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. North Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms near the center of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development during the next day or two, and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally east-southeastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-01 21:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2024-11-01 21:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2024 20:41:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2024 21:22:48 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics