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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-21 13:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 211154TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has changed little over the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Central Atlantic:A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Pasch
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