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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 20
2024-07-03 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 401 WTNT42 KNHC 031447 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb. However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb. These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is held at 125 kt. The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory. While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast, followed by weakening after landfall. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind gusts. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-03 16:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 the center of Beryl was located near 17.1, -76.1 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 20
2024-07-03 16:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun. The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, and north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche. The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche. The Hurricane Watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti has been discontinued. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Jamaica at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti today, and in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday or Friday night. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics