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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 24
2024-07-04 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear. Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring in the southwestern semicircle. This matches the asymmetric cloud pattern seen in satellite imagery. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt, and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the aircraft data. The initial motion is 285/16. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h. While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the consensus models. Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the shear could decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Beryl should weaken more after landfall. There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow intensification during that time. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength right at landfall on the western Gulf coast. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of flooding are occurring in the Cayman Islands where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. 4. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-04 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 the center of Beryl was located near 19.0, -82.6 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 24
2024-07-04 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands through this afternoon and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to subside over portions of the Cayman Islands during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions subsiding this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics