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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 27
2024-07-05 10:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Beryl is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. After unexpectedly intensifying some last night against continued shear, Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit. The last few fixes from the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission indicated the pressure rose 9 mb while the peak 700-mb wind in the final NE leg out of Beryl were down to 102 kt with lower SFMR values. In addition, the aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of Beryl's inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more degraded. On satellite, the hurricane has also become more amorphous, with a lack of an eye signature on infrared imagery, and evidence of southerly shear continuing to undercut its outflow. The initial intensity this advisory was adjusted to 95 kt, which is still higher than the satellite intensity estimates, out of respect of the earlier recon data. The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this morning, estimated at 285/13 kt. Beryl should maintain this west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely depend on the storm's vertical depth, with a more vertically deep system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow. In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in that direction may be necessary later today. The intensity forecast for the next 24 hours is straightforward, as the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of time for Beryl's convective structure to recover in the Gulf of Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl approaches landfall. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the largest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are beginning to occur across the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions today. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 27
2024-07-05 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 86.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few hours. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the Yucatan Gulf coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated. Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by Sunday into the coming week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-05 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 the center of Beryl was located near 20.1, -86.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics