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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-03 22:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:49:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2024 21:23:07 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 21
2024-07-03 22:47:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 281 WTNT42 KNHC 032047 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island. The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out. Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance. However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind gusts. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2024-07-03 22:43:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 032043 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 7(34) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 5( 5) 61(66) 7(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 10(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 63 34(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GRAND CAYMAN 50 3 42(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND CAYMAN 64 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTEGO BAY 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics