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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 14
2024-07-02 04:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday. Some more weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact portions of Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-07-02 04:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 64.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 64.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 67.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 71.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 75.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 78.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 85.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 64.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-07-02 01:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 012355 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Beryl, located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have diminished somewhat in association with an area of low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions only appear marginally conducive for additional development of this system, but a tropical depression could still form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics