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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 23
2024-07-04 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040854 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 81.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands early today and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity today as it passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands soon, with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula late today or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late today or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2024-07-04 10:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040854 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 17(40) 3(43) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 2 78(80) 6(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) COZUMEL MX 50 X 29(29) 11(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) COZUMEL MX 64 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BELIZE CITY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND CAYMAN 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 23
2024-07-04 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040853 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 81.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 81.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics