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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 25
2024-07-04 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall will be diminishing across the Cayman Islands this evening. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2024-07-04 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 996 FONT12 KNHC 042035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 2(32) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 2(26) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 7(56) 1(57) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 1(23) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 57(59) 15(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 62 20(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) COZUMEL MX 64 15 20(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 25
2024-07-04 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042034 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics