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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-07-01 04:42:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 010242 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 13(44) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CURACAO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 30(56) 1(57) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 3(62) X(62) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 68(70) 1(71) X(71) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 1(42) X(42) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) X(30) X(30) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) X(34) X(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 1 15(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DOMINICA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 33 33(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT LUCIA 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 78 19(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT VINCENT 50 17 46(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT VINCENT 64 3 18(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARBADOS 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BARBADOS 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 60 36(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRENADA 50 7 55(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GRENADA 64 2 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 72 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-01 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Jun 30 the center of Beryl was located near 11.5, -58.1 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 10
2024-07-01 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Trinidad A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early tomorrow morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting tomorrow morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting tomorrow morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics