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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 834 WTPZ45 KNHC 190243 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Erick's rapid intensification continued through 18/23Z. as an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near that time reported that the central pressure had fallen to 953 mb. However, since that time, the satellite appearance of the hurricane went through a period when it was a little degraded, suggesting that the intensification rate may have slowed. This may be due to an attempted eyewall replacement cycle, as the aircraft data suggested concentric wind maxima during its pass through the center. The intensity is a little uncertain, as the plane had to abort due to computer problems before it could probe the northeastern eyewall. Based on the central pressure, the observed wind structure, and the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 110 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward at 320/8 kt. This motion should bring the center to the Mexican coast in the state of Oaxaca within the next 12 h, with a subsequent northwestward motion bringing the system farther inland over southern Mexico on Thursday and Thursday night. The forecast guidance is essentially the same as for the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has a slight nudge to the right based on the current location and motion. Conditions continue to be favorable for strengthening, and it is possible that Erick could get stronger before landfall if the possible eyewall replacement completes. Regardless of additional intensification, rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Erick is expected to dissipate over southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to intensify and is now a major hurricane. It is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico in the western portion of the state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the state of Guerrero within the hurricane warning area early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.2N 97.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2025-06-19 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190243 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P MALDONADO 34 79 10(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) P MALDONADO 50 13 16(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) P MALDONADO 64 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ANGEL 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 03:00 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 the center of Erick was located near 15.2, -97.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics