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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-06-19 07:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 459 WTPZ45 KNHC 190544 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane. Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will weaken rapidly after making landfall. A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, and preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.5, -97.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 11
2025-06-19 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 260 WTPZ35 KNHC 190544 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 97.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 97.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero this morning, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics