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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-06-18 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 345 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission into Erick this morning and found 93-kt flight-level winds at 700 mb along with a dropsonde central pressure of 971 mb around 17Z. The recon data showed strengthening in between the 1530Z fix and the 17Z fix. An eye has been present in visible and infrared satellite imagery since about 15Z this morning, and recent satellite imagery shows the eye continuing to become more circular with warming eye temperatures. The eye is nearly completely surrounded by a large area of convective cloud tops colder than -70C. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have been increasing quickly. The 18Z subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 90-102 kt. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 95-100 kt range. Based on a blend of the data, the initial intensity is estimated to be 95 kt, and this might be a bit conservative. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This general motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday morning along the southern coast of Mexico. Erick has been moving to the right of the previous official forecast, and as a result, the new guidance shows landfall slightly to the east of the previous track. The new NHC track forecast is shifted eastward, close to the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high. Erick has been rapidly strengthening for the past 12 hours, and given the extremely favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions along Erick's forecast track, further intensification in the short term appears very likely. The 12Z HAFS models and the 18Z SHIPS guidance have Erick becoming a major hurricane soon. The various SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices all show greater than a 70 percent chance of 20 kt strengthening in the next 12 h. The new NHC forecast shows 110 kt at 12 h, which is at the high end of the intensity guidance suite. There is a possibility that Erick could strengthen more than forecast. The next Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours, around 2330 UTC today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion before sunset. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.5N 96.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-18 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 14.5, -96.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 9
2025-06-18 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 548 WTPZ35 KNHC 182033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 96.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland on Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength by this evening, with continued additional strengthening possible overnight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight into early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area this evening or overnight, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics