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Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 8
2025-06-18 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 96.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana. The Hurricane Watch from east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 96.0 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Erick is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Mexico City. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning late today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 8
2025-06-18 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181441 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 96.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-18 14:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 11:52:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 09:22:28 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics