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Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 9

2025-06-18 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 548 WTPZ35 KNHC 182033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 96.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland on Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength by this evening, with continued additional strengthening possible overnight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight into early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area this evening or overnight, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 9

2025-06-18 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 550 WTPZ25 KNHC 182033 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN [ more ]


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Hurricane Erick Graphics

2025-06-18 19:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 17:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:22:28 GMT [ more ]


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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