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Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2025-06-19 07:46:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 325 FOPZ15 KNHC 190544 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 4 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ACAPULCO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) P MALDONADO 50 37 21(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) P MALDONADO 64 11 19(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-06-19 07:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 459 WTPZ45 KNHC 190544 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane. Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will weaken rapidly after making landfall. A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, and preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.5, -97.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics