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Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2025-06-18 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 987 FOPZ15 KNHC 182033 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 2 28(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ACAPULCO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 30 63(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) P MALDONADO 50 2 51(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) P MALDONADO 64 X 27(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) P ANGEL 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P ANGEL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 95W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-06-18 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 345 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission into Erick this morning and found 93-kt flight-level winds at 700 mb along with a dropsonde central pressure of 971 mb around 17Z. The recon data showed strengthening in between the 1530Z fix and the 17Z fix. An eye has been present in visible and infrared satellite imagery since about 15Z this morning, and recent satellite imagery shows the eye continuing to become more circular with warming eye temperatures. The eye is nearly completely surrounded by a large area of convective cloud tops colder than -70C. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have been increasing quickly. The 18Z subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 90-102 kt. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 95-100 kt range. Based on a blend of the data, the initial intensity is estimated to be 95 kt, and this might be a bit conservative. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This general motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday morning along the southern coast of Mexico. Erick has been moving to the right of the previous official forecast, and as a result, the new guidance shows landfall slightly to the east of the previous track. The new NHC track forecast is shifted eastward, close to the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high. Erick has been rapidly strengthening for the past 12 hours, and given the extremely favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions along Erick's forecast track, further intensification in the short term appears very likely. The 12Z HAFS models and the 18Z SHIPS guidance have Erick becoming a major hurricane soon. The various SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices all show greater than a 70 percent chance of 20 kt strengthening in the next 12 h. The new NHC forecast shows 110 kt at 12 h, which is at the high end of the intensity guidance suite. There is a possibility that Erick could strengthen more than forecast. The next Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours, around 2330 UTC today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion before sunset. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.5N 96.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-18 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 14.5, -96.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics