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Hurricane Francine Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-09-11 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110232 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago. The maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports an intensity of about 65 kt. The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb. Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images indicate that an inner core has developed. There is still some dry air, however, outside of the core region. Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or evening. After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions. The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.4N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Francine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-09-11 04:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 363 FONT11 KNHC 110232 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 34 2 17(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 2 33(35) 21(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) STENNIS MS 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 2 41(43) 4(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) BURAS LA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 23(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 6( 6) 34(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 67(69) 13(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 34(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUMA LA 34 3 85(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) HOUMA LA 50 X 53(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) HOUMA LA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 31 55(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 76(78) 12(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 49(49) 12(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 91(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 70(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 12(14) 8(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 71(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 46(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 82(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 60(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 89 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 930W 64 78 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 10 48(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAMERON LA 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 34 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Francine (AT1/AL062024)
2024-09-11 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANCINE MOVING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 26.4, -94.3 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics