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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-23 22:49:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232049 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John continues to rapidly strengthen. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90 kt range. On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more symmetric. The latest visible images have shown hints of a small eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours. Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane. Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical wind shear and a moist atmosphere. The only potential limiting factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline. The DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid intensification over next 12 hours. The latest NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point and when it reaches the coast. John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt. The current motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 98.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-23 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 98.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to east of Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion to the north or north-northeast is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue, and John is expected to become a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-09-23 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232048 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ACAPULCO 34 2 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P MALDONADO 34 88 5(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) P MALDONADO 50 49 18(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) P MALDONADO 64 16 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics