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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 15
2025-09-03 22:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 139 WTPZ41 KNHC 032053 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 5.5 and 6.0 from TAFB and SAB respectively. The structure has continued to improve on satellite imagery with the most recent ADT estimate up to 117 knots, and a raw data T number even higher of 6.4. The initial intensity was thus set at the higher end of the subjective Dvorak estimates at 115 knots. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 knots. The forecast track reasoning has changed little for this advisory. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. The track guidance this cycle remained in good agreement through day 3. After that time, the along- and cross-track spread does increase but is still in fairly good agreement through day 5. The official track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids, near the middle of the model envelope of solutions. Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next 3 days. Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be governed by inner-core structural changes. Kiko is currently in the middle of a period of rapid intensification which is expected to last for at least another 12 hours. Thereafter, it's possible Kiko may undergo an eyewall replacement, though the environment could also allow the hurricane to develop annular characteristics. Thus, the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite, not that far off the reliable HCCA consensus aid over the first 72 hours. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann
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