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Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 21
2024-10-04 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 21
2024-10-04 16:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041431 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-04 13:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041130 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics