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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-10-05 22:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052046 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous. The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7 kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one. Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur. The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends, and is slightly lower than the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 11.6N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-05 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 11.6, -36.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 14
2024-10-05 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 36.0W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics