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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-10-09 16:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with the Dvorak estimates. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour 24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is forecast at the end of that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-09 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 21.7, -48.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 29
2024-10-09 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 48.4W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics