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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-10-08 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 884 WTNT24 KNHC 082053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-08 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 26
2024-10-08 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Leslie appears to have made a bit of a comeback today. A couple of fortuitous microwave images from the past few hours show a closed eyewall. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 55-77 kt, and recent objective estimates range from 65-74 kt. The microwave passes, the objective intensity estimates, and the TAFB current intensity number all suggest that Leslie is a hurricane. Therefore, the initial intensity is bumped back up to 65 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/12. A gradual turn to the north is expected in a day or two as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western side of a subtropical ridge. After that, as Leslie gains latitude late this week, the cyclone will increasingly come under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies, causing a turn toward the northeast. Very minor changes have been made to the official track forecast, which lies near the various consensus guidance. Leslie is forecast to remain in an environment of very weak vertical wind shear for another 24-36 h. Given the closed eyewall observed on recent microwave images, Leslie may be able to prevent dry environmental air from entraining into its inner-core during that time. Leslie will be traveling over Kirk's cold wake over the next day or so, which will limit the instability. The hurricane should remain fairly steady during this time, and the NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 24 h. By 36 h, models show Leslie running into a wall of strong northerly wind shear, which is forecast to cause Leslie to decouple and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.0N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.0N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.5N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1800Z 31.5N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1800Z 34.6N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics