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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-08 04:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080241 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897 mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in the Atlantic basin hurricane record. Subsequent center penetrations by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures. Also, flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt. The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially from the center. Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt. Milton should continue to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Then, the flow on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and Wednesday. This motion should take the system across the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, Milton is expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is close to, but a little faster than, the model consensus. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. As noted earlier, the track is closer to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be governed more by inner-core fluctuations. However the SHIPS diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore a decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western coast of the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of the peak intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or two. The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.8N 89.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-10-08 04:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:40:22 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-10-08 04:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 080239 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 23(37) X(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 46(59) 1(60) X(60) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 35(61) X(61) X(61) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 47(71) X(71) X(71) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 48(83) X(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 1(48) X(48) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 48(83) X(83) X(83) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 1(48) X(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 38(72) X(72) X(72) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 29(57) X(57) X(57) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 21(46) 1(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 50(67) 9(76) X(76) X(76) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 11(67) X(67) X(67) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 70(86) 8(94) X(94) X(94) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 17(71) X(71) X(71) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 15(49) X(49) X(49) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 66(73) 18(91) X(91) X(91) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 26(65) X(65) X(65) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43) X(43) X(43) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 19(63) X(63) X(63) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 90 X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) COZUMEL MX 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 32(41) 1(42) X(42) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 22(24) 8(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics