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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-06 22:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062053 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt. Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-06 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -93.8 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 6
2024-10-06 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cabo Catoche and a Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics