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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 14
2024-10-08 16:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb (27.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-10-08 16:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 081454 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-10-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt. Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors generally argue for little significant change during the next day or so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time, the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt, which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate into a remnant low by this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics