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Hurricane Narda Forecast Discussion Number 16
2025-09-25 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251440 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2 microwave overpass indicate that Narda's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. The presentation consists of a well-developed curved band wrapping around the surface center from the southwest quadrant and a small -81C central dense overcast (CDO). The subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 and 90 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS objective technique estimates have been running just under 80 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. Narda should remain over warm oceanic surface temperatures, while the persistent, modest northeasterly shear diminishes. Therefore, some strengthening is forecast, and Narda could once again become a category 2 hurricane by Friday. Afterward, Narda is expected to traverse progressively cooler SSTs while moving into more stable/drier thermodynamic environmental conditions. Accordingly, weakening should occur through the end of the period. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and has changed little from the previous forecast. Narda is estimated to be moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/13 kt, and this general motion should continue through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a cut-off mid-tropospheric low situated over central California is expected to dip southward toward northern Baja California by Friday night, forcing Narda to slow in forward speed and gradually turn northwestward. By early next week, the cyclone should commence a north-northeastward turn in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the U.S. west coast offshore waters. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous forecast and lies between the HCCA Corrected Consensus aid and the GDM FNv3 ensemble model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.1N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.9N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 23.3N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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