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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 4
2024-10-20 04:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200253 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TINY OSCAR PASSING SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the northern coast of Cuba for the province of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest is forecast on Sunday, and the center of Oscar is forecast to reach the coast of Cuba on Sunday night. A turn toward the north and northeast is expected early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, but weakening is anticipated on Sunday night and Monday after the center crosses the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas overnight into early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Sunday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba Sunday night into Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-10-20 04:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 043 WTNT21 KNHC 200252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nadine Graphics
2024-10-20 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:41:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:41:50 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics