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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 7
2024-10-20 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 239 WTNT31 KNHC 202044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight into tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) from a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). A weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba beginning shortly and continuing through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the warning area for the southeastern Bahamas and for tonight and Monday in the warning area in Cuba, and are possible in the watch area of Cuba this tonight into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2024-10-20 22:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 20:47:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 20:47:59 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-10-20 22:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202046 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Oscar is very close to making landfall this afternoon along the northern coast of eastern Cuba. Since the final observations from the morning Air Force Reconnaissance mission, the hurricane's structure on satellite imagery and radar out of Guantanamo Bay has not changed appreciably, with rotating cold convective bands noted on 1 minute GOES-16 imagery, and the eyewall on radar coming and going, occasionally open on the western side. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have not changed much from when the plane was in the hurricane this morning, so the initial intensity will remain at 70 kt this advisory. Oscar has continued a west-southwestward motion, but is slowing down as it nears the Cuban coast, estimated now at 250/5 kt. The strongest mid-level ridging is now oriented to the northwest of Oscar and is helping to steer the small hurricane west-southwestward into Cuba. However, by tomorrow a digging shortwave trough on the eastern side of a broader trough across the western Atlantic should further erode the steering flow north of Oscar, with much of the track guidance showing the system executing a slow but sharp turn northward on Monday, ultimately causing the tropical cyclone to emerge back out over open waters in 24-36 h. How fast Oscar then accelerates to the northeast could be related to how vertically deep the circulation is by the early part of this week, with the GFS showing a shallow Oscar drifting slowly over the central Bahamas, while the ECMWF keeps a stronger Oscar accelerating northeastward. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, slightly favoring the ECMWF forecast solution over the GFS given its better performance with this small tropical cyclone, and lies not far off the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The small inner core of Oscar is likely to be severely disrupted by the higher terrain of eastern Cuba after it makes landfall, and weakening after it moves ashore will likely be quick. Some of the guidance, especially the GFS, suggests that Oscar could weaken more than shown here in the latest NHC intensity forecast. Once Oscar re-emerges over the Atlantic Ocean, the forecast environment is not very favorable for reintensification, with westerly shear increasing above 30 kt in 36 h and plenty of very dry air waiting to be imported into the cyclone's core. The NHC forecast does not show any intensification after it emerges back offshore, and most of the guidance shows the small cyclone being absorbed by the much larger baroclinic trough sometime this week, though the timing varies among the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of the northern coast of eastern Cuba where Oscar is expected to make landfall shortly. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the north shore of eastern Cuba this afternoon and evening. 3. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 23.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.2N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics