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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-11-06 09:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060851 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required. Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba. Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today and tonight. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-06 09:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 4:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 20.6, -81.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 11
2024-11-06 09:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060850 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and could raise water levels by as much as 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics