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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-11-06 21:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2024-11-06 21:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062048 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 8 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HAVANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 13
2024-11-06 21:48:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Havana International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics