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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-07 03:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 02:53:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:23:02 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-11-07 03:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. Since then, the center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear has caused some weakening. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/11. Rafael is on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h. The GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward. The ECMWF and UKMET forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone southwestward. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that support both of these possibilities. Given the spread and uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus models. The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period. The forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward. However, all of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the south of the forecast track. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a significant spread. Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for Rafael. Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Key Messages: 1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are still possible. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight. 3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2024-11-07 03:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 070252 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 2(23) 1(24) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics