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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-08 07:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-11-08 06:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080559 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids beyond 48 h. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-11-08 06:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 930 FONT13 KNHC 080558 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics