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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-11-06 15:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 061452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) 2(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HAVANA 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HAVANA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-06 15:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 10:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 21.4, -81.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 12
2024-11-06 15:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or just east of the Isle of Youth during the next few hours, and make landfall in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics