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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2024-11-08 21:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 082032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-08 21:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.6, -89.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 22
2024-11-08 21:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics