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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Forecast Discussion Number 15
2025-06-20 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 363 WTPZ45 KNHC 200233 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick has continued to rapidly weaken over Mexico, as the system is no longer producing organized convection and the circulation has become poorly defined. Based on these developments, the cyclone is downgraded to a remnant low pressure area and this will be the last advisory. A 12-h forecast point is included, but the circulation may well dissipate before 12 h. Although Erick is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-20 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 18.0, -100.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Public Advisory Number 15
2025-06-20 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 628 WTPZ35 KNHC 200232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics