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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Forecast Discussion Number 46
2025-08-22 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025 849 WTNT45 KNHC 222032 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025 Erin has now become a powerful extratropical low. While there is still deep convection near the center, scatterometer data clearly shows that Erin has become frontal. Thus, extratropical transition has been completed, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity remains 80 kt based on the multiple earlier scatterometer winds near 70 kt, with very large gale- and storm-force wind-radii noted. While the general track and intensity forecast is about the same as before, one specific marine hazard to highlight is the consistent development of a strong sting jet in the southern semicircle of Erin by Sunday, as well as a very large hurricane-force wind field. Model guidance now suggest that a maximum of 80-90 kt is possible, and the NHC intensity forecast is raised to 85 kt then. No other noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through tonight, making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast could also cause significant beach erosion and overwash. 3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1800Z 44.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 52.0N 27.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 55.0N 23.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 58.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z 59.0N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 57.0N 17.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics