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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 33
2024-10-07 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 365 WTNT42 KNHC 071441 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. The track forecast is near the consensus models. Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours. Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move over western Europe by late Wednesday. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-07 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 41.7, -38.4 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Public Advisory Number 33
2024-10-07 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...KIRK BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 38.4W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 38.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to remain a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics