je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-15 22:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 601 WTNT23 KNHC 152055 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 60SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-15 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:32:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:23:04 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-09-15 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152031 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25 to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a tropical depression. The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current motion estimate of 260/7 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level ridge to to the north. The steering flow is expected to weaken as the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period, a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the period near the HFIP corrected consensus. Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics